See Bahasa Indonesia translation
107th Version : October 2022.
Key Factors
- Lumpy Pores and skin Illness (LSD) has now been confirmed in Central Java, leaping 1000 kilometres eastwards from its final confirmed location in Jambi, Central Sumatra.
- Vaccinations for Foot & Mouth Illness (FMD) in Bali characterize 10% of the nationwide vaccination program.
Indonesia : Slaughter Steers AUD $5.31/kg reside weight (Rp9,800 = $1AUD)
Slaughter cattle costs have remained regular throughout October at Rp52,000 per kg reside weight as shopper demand continues to be weak. The AUD value above has risen because of the Aussie greenback weakening towards the Rupiah.
Charges of as much as Rp55,000 per kg can be found however just for solely these cattle with exception carcase yields.
Retail meat costs stay agency with Pasar Trendy moist market in BSD sustaining Rp165,000 per kg for contemporary knuckle whereas Tremendous Indo was providing discounted knuckle for Rp159,500 per kg. Within the photograph under, Lotte Mart, one other grocery store in BSD metropolis was promoting knuckle for Rp212,800 per kg.
Indian Buffalo Meat (IBM) costs on the native BSD grocery store stay the identical as final month at Rp109,900 per kg.
Indonesians like their beef LEAN and that’s what they get.
Throughout the peak of the emergency slaughter of FMD contaminated and suspect animals, volumes of beef in extra of every day demand had been frozen by the authorities. Now that the mass an infection and slaughter part has been changed by mass vaccination, a few of this frozen beef is being launched to the retail market. Some market observers recommend that these further volumes are contributing to the sluggish demand for contemporary beef.
This desk from MLA reveals native cattle reside weight costs in Rupiah throughout Indonesia.
The nationwide vaccination numbers proceed to rise with the totals of the assorted animal classes listed under. These figures had been taken from the federal government site on the 31st of October.
Nationwide FMD vaccination knowledge as at 31st October 2022.
Bali continues to guide the areas within the race to vaccinate their herds. The overall cattle vaccination determine of near 400,000 head is about 10% of the nationwide determine. The overall variety of cattle in Bali is in some doubt however 400k needs to be nearly all of the herd so second spherical vaccinations are in all probability already beneath approach. Sadly, the statistics offered on the federal government site don’t separate first and second vaccinations with solely a complete determine offered for every species. This excessive stage of vaccine protection actually reduces the danger of transmission via vacationers carrying the virus residence by a big margin. A full second spherical will hopefully push the danger of vacationer transmission again to close pre-introduction ranges.
Pig vaccinations in Bali characterize 92% of all pigs vaccinated in Indonesia. This would possibly characterize one third or one half of all pigs in Bali so as soon as once more this good progress is a vital a part of the FMD management program as contaminated pigs are potent multipliers of the virus.
Anybody can comply with the progress of the vaccination program on the federal government web site at https://siagapmk.crisis-center.id/ When studying these figures I anticipate the vaccine numbers are correct whereas the information on FMD instances is unquestionably not. It’s authorities coverage that there aren’t any extra instances of FMD in Bali and numerous different areas. Authorities animal well being companies due to this fact don’t report any new instances to be able to adjust to the coverage. It is a coverage for public/worldwide notion and has no bearing on the information. The goal within the case of Bali is to current Indonesia in the very best gentle in the course of the G20 conferences in Bali and deflect any recommendations that it’s unwise for vacationers to go to the island.
Bali vaccination knowledge on the finish of October 2022.
As the specter of FMD is slowly decreasing, the scenario relating to LSD is rapidly turning into far more alarming. Whereas the numbers on the map under are incorrect, the truth that LSD has been positively recognized in Central Java could be very actual and really vital. Within the final month, LSD has moved from its earlier most easterly location of Jambi in Sumatra to the centre of Java, a distance of over 1,000 km. The gap from Semarang to Kupang in West Timor is just one other 2,000km. Whereas there are many theories about how the LSD virus jumped over southern Sumatra and West Java, the actual fact stays that it’s now dramatically nearer to Timor the place it is going to be ready to doubtlessly threaten northern Australia. Word the map under displaying Darwin and the northern Prime Finish within the decrease right-hand nook.
The numbers on this map are incorrect however the truth that LSD has arrived in Central Java just isn’t. The identify of Semarang, a serious metropolis in Central Java is partly hidden beneath the inexperienced dot.
See under a video of one of many animals contaminated with LSD in Semarang. I’m suggested that the video was taken in mid-October and that the illness has been confirmed by laboratory testing. The animal proven seems fairly shiny and has a great urge for food. This means that it has totally recovered from the preliminary fever stage so an infection could nicely have taken place within the first week of October if not earlier. There are some unconfirmed studies that it might have been in Central Java since August! The south-west monsoon is underway with rain virtually each day in Bali. The related monsoonal winds will help bugs to maneuver from west to east so it might not be lengthy earlier than the bugs carrying the virus arrive in Bali. Final week I acquired unconfirmed studies of LSD in Madura Island in East Java.
See video of cattle infected by LSD in Indoneisa here
After a really lengthy search I’ve lastly situated a photograph of a younger Bali bull with medical LSD. Though it won’t look significantly ailing, its pores and skin is actually a multitude and can should be protected against additional insect assault and secondary bacterial an infection. The second photograph of an analogous younger Bali bull was taken close to my home in Bali this week. I gained’t want my veterinary diploma to know when this virus arrives in Bali and infects the native cattle.
Picture of a younger Bali bull in Sumatra contaminated with LSD. Bali cattle are current throughout Indonesia.
An analogous Bali bull fairly near my home. I go to this group often to test of their well being.
The Australian authorities has supported the LSD management program with the provision of 435,000 doses of LSD vaccine. 26,500 of those have been distributed to Central Java because the identification of those new instances. For causes that stay unclear, the Indonesian authorities nonetheless require the feedlot business to undergo a particularly lengthy and sophisticated bureaucratic course of to ensure that them to be allowed to buy their very own vaccine, together with LSD vaccine. This course of solely serves to extend the danger that imported animals might be uncovered to LSD earlier than the importers acquire permission to buy their very own vaccine merchandise.
Darwin feeder steer costs have shot up once more as they normally do within the northern Australian moist season though the latest value of AUD$5.25 for feeders continues to be just a little wanting the report of $5.53 from March of this 12 months. This might be a bitter capsule for importers with the one sweetener being the weak point of the AUD$ towards the Rupiah which actually helps to take the sting of those excessive charges.
The spiritual pageant of Ramadan will happen from 22nd of March to the 21st of April adopted by the celebration of Lebaran on the 22nd of April. The week lengthy Lebaran vacation is equal to the Christmas vacation interval for Christians. The ultimate week of Ramadan and the Lebaran vacation interval is historically the annual peak interval for consumption of beef (and different favoured meals gadgets). Australian feeders bought in Darwin this week will contribute to provides of beef for these festivals because the fattened cattle emerge from the feedlots after the roughly 1 month supply time and the 4-5 month fattening interval.
Darwin port dispatched 9 vessels to three Indonesian vacation spot ports carrying a complete of 31,011 feeders for the complete month as importers take advantage of the diminished AUD, full entry to FMD vaccines to guard feeders on arrival and start to replenish for Ramadan and Lebaran subsequent March. Throughout September 2022 1,100 feeder buffalo had been exported from Darwin to Indonesia.
Vietnam : Slaughter Steers AUD $5.55 / kg (VND15,500 to $1AUD)
Slaughter cattle costs remained regular throughout October with the AUD determine above rising because of the weaker Aussie $. The indicator fee for October continues to be Dong 86,000 per kg reside weight.
The Vietnamese livestock and meat industries have had a really robust time over the previous couple of years. As pork is Vietnam’s hottest meat, their market was devastated by the introduction of African Swine Fever (ASF) in February 2019 and has nonetheless not totally recovered as there isn’t any vaccine for this illness with new instances nonetheless being reported this month (see FAO map under). Then LSD hit in October 2020 inflicting substantial losses earlier than vaccine may very well be imported and broadly distributed. I’m informed that LSD is now largely beneath management all through the county because of the widespread use of the efficient live-virus vaccine. Additionally, identical to the remainder of the world, Vietnam was hammered by Covid 19 originally of 2020 which resulted in extreme restrictions to the actions of their inhabitants and economic system usually in addition to halting nearly all of exports throughout the northern border into China. This included meat merchandise amongst many others and so far as I’m conscious these restrictions are nonetheless strongly enforced. If all this wasn’t sufficient, the value of Australian slaughter cattle went via the roof in the direction of the top of 2021 rising to the purpose the place shipments from northern Australia slowed to a mere trickle. The only cargo of slaughter bulls from Brazil turned a catastrophe with their BSE notification delivered mid-voyage leading to a really prolonged and really costly put up arrival quarantine interval. Vietnam has additionally reported numerous outbreaks of Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1. FMD is endemic in all of continental Southeast Asia together with Vietnam however is usually nicely beneath management via common vaccination packages.
Official authorities statistics point out that the nation cattle herd is 6.4 million head, a rise of three.4% on final 12 months whereas nationwide beef manufacturing was 348,900 tons an annual improve of three.8%.
As Vietnam imports primarily fats cattle for slaughter shortly after arrival there’s negligible alternative for worth including which is a large bonus in Indonesia. The result’s that importers are trapped between a home retail market which refuses to pay extra (Vietnamese shoppers already pay the very best value for beef of any nation in SE Asia) and an Australian cattle market that reveals little signal of declining cattle costs. In the mean time it appears to me that the one hope for importers is a serious collapse within the AUD$ towards the Vietnamese Dong. Contemplating the regular decline within the Chinese language economic system, this occasion might nicely turn out to be actuality throughout 2023.
FAO ASF map up to date on 13th of October 2022.
China : Slaughter Cattle AUD $7.95 / kg reside weight (RMB 4.57 = 1AUD$)
Slaughter cattle costs have risen as soon as once more throughout October with near a ten% improve within the common value to Yuan 36.35 per kg reside weight which interprets with a weaker AUD$ to solely 5 cents wanting $8 per kg. Contemporary beef costs have additionally edged up just a little in the course of the month though grocery store beef, pork and rooster costs had been largely unchanged.
Final month I reported on the MOU between China and Laos agreeing to cooperate with a mission to export reside cattle throughout the border from Laos to China the place animals could be slaughtered on the Chinese language abattoir situated at Mohan solely about 10 km from Boten.
The gap from the Lao border crossing city of Boten to the Mohan abattoir in China is lower than 10 km.
In the mean time, the settlement between China and Lao states that solely cattle originating from Lao are eligible to cross the border with out attracting heavy import duties. Even with no import duties, the present excessive value of Australian cattle seems to make this selection unviable. For instance, utilizing an estimated AUD$4.50 per kg reside for fats ox in Townville suggests a value landed on the port of Vinh, central Vietnam of about AUD$5.50 per kg. A wild guess of trucking these cattle, west via Vietnam, throughout the border then north via Laos to the quarantine station close to Boten, about 900km, may very well be one other AUD$50 cents per kg. Quarantine, well being protocols, and so forth. and so forth. on the Boten border holding depot is likely to be an extra AUD50cents per kg for a really tough whole of AUD$6.50 per kg reside weight delivered to Mohan. The closest massive Chinese language metropolis to Mohan is Kunming which is about 500km by highway. Costs in Shanghai and Beijing are solely $7.95 so the potential margins seem uncomfortably skinny.
Philippines : Slaughter Cattle AUD $3.41 / kg (Peso 37.5 to AUD$1)
No change in slaughter cattle charges throughout October however retail beef costs have edged up by virtually 5% since September. ASF continues to trigger severe disruption to the pig business which produces the preferred meat product for Filipinos.
Thailand: Slaughter Steers AUD $4.13 / kg (Baht 24.2 to $1AUD)
No change in reside cattle costs throughout October with the indicator fee remaining at THB100 per kg reside weight. Feedlot demand continues to be weak though the attractiveness of low-cost feeders from Myanmar means cross border imports are slowly rising as some feedlots take a danger with a modest improve of their inventories.
“Sincere” John Catchlove.
Northern Australia appears to have greater than its justifiable share of fantastic characters. Sincere John Catchlove, identified to everybody as “Sincere” is likely one of the most memorable I’ve met throughout my 43 years within the north. Sincere is retired now however was primarily a firstclass outback truck driver carting cattle and a spread of different freight throughout northern Australia. He was additionally a outstanding entrepreneur, working a Women costume store and Café referred to as “Sincere John’s” for a few years within the coronary heart of the distant port city of Wyndham within the East Kimberley district of Western Australia. Considered one of his most impressed gross sales campaigns was when he personally delivered massive portions of chilly beer, burgers and different important gadgets to teams of very sweaty and really appreciative troopers situated in dusty fox-holes scattered throughout the Wyndham district throughout an enormous army struggle video games train. Sincere additionally managed the Wyndham reside cattle export yards for a few years. He at all times has a shaggy dog story to inform and invariably delivers it with one cocked, bushy eyebrow and a mischievous twinkle in his eye.
His house is a corrugated iron shed on the sun-baked salt flats about 500 metres from the Wyndham wharf, one of many hottest locations on earth. I stayed there on many events after I was delivering well being protocol companies on the Wyndham export yards. I named it the “Port Gap”.
6 foot 4”Sincere John Catchlove at his residence, “The Port Gap” on the port of Wyndham, Western Australia. Picture from the Western Australian State Library. No home windows or some other such pointless frills.
Whereas Sincere just isn’t explicit about his lodging preparations he most actually is about his private motorized vehicle. In September 2020, myself and a fellow stockman disembarked from a cattle ship within the port of Wyndham and wanted transport to Kununurra (about 110km) to finish our Covid 19 quarantine. Sincere kindly drove us to our Kununurra resort in his model new V8 Mustang GT Fastback.
October 2022 costs
These figures are transformed to AUD$ from their respective currencies that are altering each day so the precise costs listed below are corrupted barely by fixed overseas alternate fluctuations. The AUD$ figures introduced under needs to be considered dependable traits relatively than actual particular person costs. The place doable the meat lower used for pricing within the moist and grocery store is Knuckle / Spherical.
| Location | Date | Moist Market
AUD$/kg |
Grocery store
$/kg B = buffalo$ |
Broiler rooster
$/kg |
Reside Steer
Slaughter Wt AUD$/kg |
| Indonesia | Might 22 | 15.57 | 19.72 B12.17 | 3.77 | 5.19 |
| Rp10,300 | June 22 | 15.53 | 19.15 B12.52 | 3.88 | 5.24 |
| Rp10,300 | July 22 | 15.53 | 16.94 B12.52 | 4.08 | 5.15 |
| Rp10.300 | August 22 | 16.02 | 20.68 B10.70 | 3.88 | 5.15 |
| Rp10,000 | Sept 22 | 16.50 | 17.45 B10.99 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| Rp9,800 | October 22 | 16.84 | 16.22 B11.22 | 3.88 | 5.31 |
| Philippines | Might 22 | 14.48 | 15.28 | NA | 3.43 |
| P37.5 | June 22 | 14.40 | 15.20 | 4.93 | 3.41 |
| P38.75 | July 22 | 13.94 | 14.71 | NA | 3.30 |
| P39.0 | August 22 | 13.85 | 14.62 | 4.92 | 3.28 |
| P38.4 | Sept 22 | 14.06 | 14.84 | NA | 3.33 |
| P37.5 | October 22 | 14.93 | 16.00 | 5.41 | 3.41 |
| Thailand | Might 22 | NA | NA | NA | 4.12 |
| THB 24.5 | June 22 | 12.24 | NA | 4.16 | 4.08 |
| THB 24.8 | July 22 | NA | NA | NA | 4.03 |
| THB 25.0 | August 22 | 12.00 | NA | 3.76 | 4.00 |
| THB 24.8 | September 22 | 10.88 | NA | 3.47 | 4.03 |
| THB 24.2 | October 22 | NA | NA | NA | 4.13 |
| Vietnam | Might 22 | 18.45 | 18.69 | 5.54 | 5.00 |
| D16,400 | June 22 | 18.90 | 19.15 | 7.13 | 5.30 |
| D16,000 | July 22 | 19.38 | 19.63 | 8.06 | 5.43 |
| D16,400 | August 22 | 17.39 | 19.39 | 7.32 | 5.30 |
| D15,700 | Sept 22 | 18.15 | 20.00 | 7.00 | 5.48 |
| D15,500 | October 22 | 18.06 | 20.26 | 7.74 | 5.55 |
| China Beijing | Might 22 | 19.57 | 20.85 | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| Y4.70 | June 22 | 18.72 | 19.57 | 4.26 | 7.15 |
| Y4.62 | July 22 | 19.48 | 21.65 | 3.90 | 7.14 |
| Y4.73 | August 22 | 19.45 | 22.40 | 4.14 | 7.10 |
| Y4.70 | Sept 22 | 20.43 | 23.4 | 4.21 | 7.62 |
| Y5.57 | October 22 | 21.44 | 24.07 | 4.47 | 7.92 |
| Shanghai | Might 22 | 19.68 | 23.40 | 3.96 | 7.40 |
| Pork per kg | June 22 | 19.15 | 23.83 | 4.09 | 7.19 |
| Beijing Y38.0 | July 22 | 19.05 | 23.38 | 4.11 | 7.14 |
| ShanghaiY40.0 | August 22 | 19.03 | 23.26 | 4.06 | 7.02 |
| Sept 22 | 20.21 | 24.68 | 4.21 | 7.70 | |
| October 22 | 21.01 | 25.82 | 4.49 | 7.99 | |
| Darwin Feeder Steer | Sept 2020
$3.45 |
October 2020
$3.90 |
Nov 2020
$4.00 |
Dec 2020
$4.00 |
Jan 21
$4.10 |
| Feb 21
$4.30 |
March 21
$4.30 |
April 21
$4.20 |
Might 21
$4.10 |
June 21
$4.10 |
|
| July 21
$4.05 |
August 21
$4.25 |
Sept 21
$4.20 |
Oct 21
$4.30 |
November 21
$4.50 |
|
| December 21
$4.70 |
January 22
$5.35 |
February 22
$5.45 |
March 22
$5.53 |
April 22
$4.80 |
|
| Might 22
$4.80 |
June 22
$4.80 |
July 22
$3.85 |
August 22
$4.20 |
September 22
$4.70 |
|
| October 22
$5.25 |
